Number of citizens aged 25-29 is rapidly decreasing in Ukraine

This was stated by the founder and CEO of the Frontline Institute, during the conference “Demographic Future of Ukraine: Strategy for Sustainability and Recovery. Civil Society’s Vision” was told by the founder and CEO of the Frontier Institute Yevhen Hlibovytskyi, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“According to 2019, there were about 3.1 million people aged 25-29 in Ukraine. There were almost 1.8 million people aged 15-19. That is, according to the then forecasts, when 15-year-olds reach the age of 25, this age group will decrease by about 1.3 million people. Why am I emphasizing this age group? Because this group is also the most important for the Ukrainian economy. This is the engine of demand – it is the period of buying the first car, the first apartment, the first large household appliances, the time of the first child, and so on. These are the people who drive the economy. And soon, instead of 3 million, there will be only 1.8 million of them,” Hlibovytsky said.

He also noted that this data was available before the start of the full-scale invasion, while now the demographic situation has deteriorated significantly. Including in the category of those who are 15 to 19 years old as of today.

“You and I understand what parents do in times of war when their children are 16 or 17 years old. They take them abroad. Accordingly, we can already assume that this number of more than 3 million will soon fall below 1 million. What does this actually mean? It means that the Ukrainian economy will break down,” the expert said.

He added that certain manifestations of this trend can already be seen in the border areas of Sumy and Kherson. Against the backdrop of maintaining approximately the same population, noticeable structural changes have begun there: young people have disappeared, families of childbearing age have disappeared, and a large number of older people and people in need of social or other assistance have appeared.

“This is a phenomenon that we have not yet seen in Ukrainian conditions. The demographic decline that Ukraine has experienced so far was a one-time thing – the occupation of Crimea, Donbas, and the south. Businesses simply wrote it off as a loss because demand in the rest of the country was relatively stable. Now, investors will simply leave the market,” Hlibovytsky emphasized.

As reported, demographers estimate that the population in the government-controlled areas could reach 31.5 million people. Direct demographic losses as a result of the war as of mid-2024 amount to 10 million people. This is almost a quarter of the total population of Ukraine before the 2014 aggression.